During World War One and Two Great Britain and its’ allies blockaded German very effectively. In WWI the blockade cause actual starvation in Germany. In WW2 because of the large amount of fertile farmland captured, Germany wasn’t starved but the importation of vital war material like rubber and precious metals was cut off severely damaging their war effort. Ironically, today the US and its’ NATO allies have imposed a blockade on themselves preventing vital imports of oil, gas, fertilizer, and food. Every month that goes by the effects of the “self-own” blockade will more and more negatively affect the anti-Russian alliance. It remains to be seen how long the average middle class American who couldn’t find the Ukraine on the map if their life depended on it will put up with the sacrifices to their already paycheck to paycheck lifestyle. Of course, this self-imposed blockade will affect the developing world far more. We may see the return of real widespread famines. Even more ironically, the Russians have been raking in record foreign exchange due to the skyrocketing value of its’ exports, constrained as they are.
This situation is not sustainable. Either the US and its’ allies will be forced to a diplomatic solution that certainly will not be advantageous to its’ Ukrainian partner or it will be forced to go all in on a war with Russia with all the horrendous risks that implies. Simply dumping more weapons on the Ukrainians who don’t know how to use them and can’t maintain them isn’t the answer. Given the attrition of Ukrainian forces, even at the rate they admit to, means there will be fewer and fewer forces to operate them and hold the line.
All this makes one wonder if the administration and our military thought through all the implications of a rejection of diplomatic solutions. Did their desire to act tough override common sense? Hubris? Was it simply a lack of cognitive ability? Will it take the advice of America’s most skilled diplomat, 99 year old Henry Kissinger and start negotiations before things get much much worse? We shall certainly see.